摘要：招银国际Alex Ng,Lily Yang,Lana Lin近期对韦尔股份进行研究并发布了研究报告《2Q results review:Recovery slowed down by weak mobile CIS》，本报告对韦尔股份给出买...
招银国际Alex Ng,Lily Yang,Lana Lin近期对韦尔股份进行研究并发布了研究报告《2Q results review:Recovery slowed down by weak mobile CIS》，本报告对韦尔股份给出买入评级，认为其目标价位为150.00元，当前股价为107.5元，预期上涨幅度为39.53%。
韦尔股份(603501)
Willsemi’s 2Q22 revenue/NP to shareholders declined 11.3%/14.1% YoY to RMB5,534mn/RMB1,373mn. 2Q22 revenue was similar to 1Q (-0.1% QoQ), while NP to shareholders grew 53.2% QoQ, in line with mgmt. guidance of 50%+.However, we see GPM deteriorated 2ppts QoQ to 33.3% and earnings excl. extraordinary items (including non-recurring asset disposal gain of RMB1.1bn)declined 39.1% QoQ. We believe the earnings miss was largely within expectations given the smartphone/PC demand remains weak and operations/logistic was affected by COVID-19 in 2Q. Looking forward, we expect 2H22 numbers should be better due to seasonality but challenges remain. We maintain BUY given positive long-term outlook and slightly tweaked TP to RMB150.
Non-mobile CIS accounted for 56% of total 1H22 CIS sales. Company gave a detailed breakdown of CIS sales for 1H22, with 44% from smartphone, 22% from auto, 17% from security and 17% from IoT, NB and healthcare. The growth of non-mobile CIS sales was largely in line with our expectations. However, mobile CIS sales was dragged by weak smartphone demand. According to IDC, Android smartphone shipment declined by 10.6% in 1H22(vs. IPhone shipment grew 1.4%). We revised down our FY22E forecast for Willsemi’s mobile CIS sales by 18.2% and revise up non-mobile CIS sales by 2.4%, reflecting the continuous weakness in Android smartphone market and faster-than-expected auto/IoT market growth.
Slow digestion of inventory due to global uncertainty and softening demand. Willsemi’s inventory grew 20.8% QoQ in 2Q22, among which more than half were finished goods. 2Q inventory level was equal to 4.6x monthly sales in 4Q21 and further increased to 5.7x in 1Q22 and 6.9x in 2Q22. We think the pressure to offload inventories will be mildly eased in 2H22 given traditional holiday seasons but will still remain an overhang due to market uncertainties and macro conditions.
Maintain BUY and slightly adjust our TP to RMB150. We slightly adjust our TP to RMB150, considering 1) lowered EPS forecasts by 2% for 2022/23E to reflect global uncertainty and softening demand from Android market and 2)valuation rollovers to 32x FY23E P/E (vs. previous 35x FY22E P/E). We think the valuation is fair, given depressed market sentiment and weakened consumer confidence. Potential downside risks include: 1) worse-thanexpected global economy that curbs consumer spending, 2) higher level of inventory and 3) possible disruption in logistic and production.
证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，东吴证券唐权喜研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三年预测准确度均值高达97.66%，其预测2022年度归属净利润为盈利54.98亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为17.19。
最新盈利预测明细如下：
该股最近90天内共有21家机构给出评级，买入评级18家，增持评级3家；过去90天内机构目标均价为190.01。根据近五年财报数据，证券之星估值分析工具显示，韦尔股份（603501）行业内竞争力的护城河优秀，盈利能力良好，营收成长性一般。财务相对健康，须关注的财务指标包括：有息资产负债率。该股好公司指标4星，好价格指标2.5星，综合指标3星。（指标仅供参考，指标范围：0 ~ 5星，最高5星）
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